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Fool’s Gold?

In January this year I made some market predictions to my friends, I said I thought Oil would hit $75 a barrel again before the end of the year, that the Euro would fall back against the pound (which it did but not quite as far as I expected I said about 1.3 to the pound which it seems was way too optimistic) and that the value of Gold would plummet like a stone before Christmas.

Gold did drop early in the year from a trading price of about $980 an Oz to about $800 certainly a big fall but not enough. There’s an old saying about investments called Dumb Money, which is when everyone on the street is talking about it then it’s time to get your money out of it.

Everywhere I go now someone is advertising cash for gold, or new gold treasury pieces or the like. Which makes me confident the end is nigh. You just have to consider that Gold is primarily used for decoration, only about 15% is used industrially and both consumer spending and industry are down massively so Gold can only be priced on speculation.

Now canny investors with enough money muscle know that there is so little Gold produced annually that big investments can have a gold finger effect, starving the market to drive prices up and flooding it to drive them down. Such investors can then buy short dated futures or options which will actually make them a profit when prices fall, initially to hedge a position but also in full knowledge that when they drop their holding it’s going to hit the price and make a double profit.

So while stock markets around the world are rising the question has to be starting to build in these investors mind that the time to pull out is sooner rather than later with Gold currently running at $1050 an Oz up almost 50% on two years ago! So I am going to make a Charity pledge – If gold is still above $700 an Oz on the 25th of December I will literally eat a hat for the British Heart Foundation.

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